Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

15 July 2025
Trendy Essembly comparison image to Modis Data
The probability of dominant event (strong stabilization: pink, weak stabilization: blue, and amplification: green) for MODIS (a) and TRENDY ensemble (b), respectively

A reanalysis of Northern Hemisphere vegetation greening trends observed from long-term satellite data reveals that moisture and heat-related stress in the late growing season, along with other resource constraints, are increasingly offsetting positive growth effects from warmer temperatures in spring and rising atmosphere CO2 levels. Current state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models do not accurately represent these amplifying and stabilizing seasonal factors, which may impair model forecasts of future climate.

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